Q2 2024/25 National Crime and Policing Measures

1.   Introduction

The previous Government’s National Crime and Policing Measures (NCPM) are intended to compliment the local priorities that are set out in Police and Crime Commissioners’ (PCC) Police and Crime Plans; nonetheless the Government was clear that forces must achieve significant reductions in crime and restore the public’s confidence in the criminal justice system. The six key priorities of the NCPM are: –

1. Reduce murder and other homicides.
2. Reduce serious violence.
3. Disrupt drugs supply and county lines.
4. Reduce neighbourhood crime.
5. Tackle cyber-crime.
6. Improve satisfaction among victims – with a particular focus on victims of domestic abuse.

2.   Specified Information Order

In August 2021, the ‘Elected Local Policing Bodies (Specified Information) (Amendment) Order 2021’ came into effect, requiring PCCs to publish information relating to a police force’s performance against the NCPM and thereby enabling greater public scrutiny of police performance and to allow the electorate to hold PCCs to account more effectively. The order states that: –

• PCCs are required to provide a statement on the contribution of their force to achieving improvements against those priorities.
• The information must be published in a prominent place on the PCC’s website. The purpose of this requirement is to make it as easy as possible for the public to access the information, and quarterly updates should be made following the publication of quarterly crime statistics.

3.   Statement of Contribution

On 31 March 2022, the Warwickshire Police and Crime Commissioner (PCC) formally published the ‘Police and Crime Plan 2021-2025’. The objectives set within the plan have been formulated with consideration of the requirements of the NCPM.

Figure 1: Police and Crime Plan 2021-25 ‘Plan on a Page’.

The PCC wants to ensure that all agencies are working together to reduce crime, support victims and make communities safer, to ensure delivery against the NCPM priorities. This collaboration is achieved through regular engagement with local communities, the police, partners, and community safety organisations. The PCC’s position as the Chair of the Local Criminal Justice Board also enables him to monitor the provision of an effective and efficient criminal justice system in Warwickshire.

In terms of the PCC responsibilities to ‘hold to account’ the Chief Constable for the performance of Warwickshire Police, the PCC holds a formal monthly ‘Governance and Scrutiny Board’ (GSB) meeting with the Chief Constable. The purpose of the GSB is to focus on specific areas of force performance and is attended by senior officers and staff from the force and the Office of the Police and Crime Commissioner (OPCC). The minutes of the meetings are published on the OPCC website. At each GSB a topical ‘Focus subject’ of particular interest is selected for in-depth scrutiny and discussion.

4.   Warwickshire Police Overview

The Govt. baseline for NCPM is the performance data for the calendar year 2019 and there are specific measures for the six priority areas. The Home Office recognise that not all measures will apply equally to every force, so PCCs must consider how best to apply these measures in their force area. Warwickshire Police has therefore selected some additional proxy measures to assess the force’s contribution towards these national priorities and the force will continue to develop its approach to ensure that the measures are aligned with the national position.

This report has principally been prepared through scrutiny of the performance data provided in Warwickshire Police’s monthly performance reports for Q3 2023/24: –

• Performance Monthly Insights – September 2024.
• Performance Monthly Insights – August 2024.
• Performance Monthly Insights – July 2024.

A summary of the force’s and OPCC position, with commentary, is provided as follows.

5.   Reduce Murder and Other Homicides

5.1.  Force data

The Home Office has identified an ‘outlier’ as an increase equal or greater than five homicides (negative outlier), or a decrease equal or greater than five homicides (positive outlier), between the latest six-month period and the equivalent six-month period in the previous year. However, the current measures and baselines were agreed by the previous government and the Home Office officials have not as yet had a steer from Ministers as to how they wish to consider force performance going forward. As a result, the ‘outliers’ process has been paused.

• In 2023/24, there were six homicides recorded, an increase on the five recorded in the previous year.
• In Q2 2024/25, one homicide was recorded, a manslaughter. The Home Office would not consider Warwickshire Police to be an ‘outlier’ under the previous criteria.

5.2.  OPCC Commentary

Murder and homicides are allied to the subject of Serious Violence and are therefore discussed in the following section.

6.   Reduce Serious Violence

The Govt. measures are: –

1. Offences involving the discharge of a firearm
2. The force’s proxy Hospital admissions for persons under 25 years old injured with sharp instrument (NHS measure).

The force’s measures are: –

1. Serious violence (Violence with Injury, and Robbery).
2. Offences involving knife crime or sharp instruments.
3. Offences involving the use of a firearms.

6.1.  Force data

a)   Serious Violence – Seasonal

Violence with Injury

• The Home Office baseline is the data for 2019 data (n=4,649).
• In 2023/24, volumes (n=4,855) increased by +3% on the previous year.
• In Q2 2024/25, volumes (n=1,264) remained stable when compared to the previous Q1 (n=1,262).

Robbery Personal

• The Home Office baseline is the data for 2019 (n=470).
• In 2023/24, volumes (n=347) increased by +5% on the previous year.
• In Q2 2024/25, volumes (n=117) remained stable when compared to the previous Q1 (n=117).
• Levels remain above the 3-year average and forecast.

b)   Knife Crime

The Home Office data collection for offences involving knives or sharp instruments is limited to selected offences and certain weapon types. It excludes possession offences. Knife crime is not a designated Home Office crime category.

• The force’s Annual Data Return showed a -20% reduction in knife crime when compared to the previous year – a positive position!

c)    Firearms

• The Home Office baseline is the 2019 data (n=57). The Home Office data collection reports on offences where a firearm was used as a ‘threat’.
• In 2023/24, volumes (n=64) increased by +20% on the previous year.
• In Q2 2024/25, there were 11 x firearms offences recorded, a significant reduction when compared to the 20 x offences recorded in the previous Q1.

6.2.  OPCC Commentary

A question was raised at the GSB Performance Scrutiny – Q1 2024/25 meeting, regarding the specific measures the force are taking to improve the action taken outcome rates for robbery.

The OPCC continued to provide support and oversight of the application of the Serious Violence Duty (SVD) in the county, including attendance at the Serious Violence Prevention Partnership.

7.   Disrupt Drugs and County Lines

The Govt. measures are: –

1. Drug Related Homicide.
2. Police Referred Drug Treatment (supplied by Public Health England).

The force’s proxy measures are: –

1. Drug related homicides.
2. Organised Crime Group (OCG) disruption.

7.1. Force data

a) Drug Related Homicide.

The force does not disaggregate this information within the performance framework, due to the low volume of homicide within the county. External data indicates that since 2016 around 44% of the force’s homicides carried a ‘drug’ marker, below the national rate.

In 2023, Warwickshire Police completed a ‘Homicide and Near Miss Problem Profile’ that indicated that the drug market influenced 8% of such incidents.

b)   Organised Crime Groups (OCG)

In September 2024, there were 141 approved disruptions of OCGs in the county, above the target of 100 disruptions per month. Of note is that six adults and nine children were safeguarded during this period. It is noted that there continues to be a significant increase in OCG disruption during the last 12-month

Given the complexity and sensitivity of OCGs and County-lines activity, which predominately involves cross-border crime, qualitative comment cannot be provided without further context.

7.2. OPCC Commentary

On 14 May 2024, as part of HMICFRS overall police effectiveness, efficiency and legitimacy inspections, it published its report, ‘An inspection of the West Midlands regional response to serious and organised crime’. The report inspected how well the regions police forces, including Warwickshire Police, tackle serious and organised crime (SOC), of which OCG is a significant element: –

An inspection of the West Midlands regional response to serious and organised crime – His Majesty’s Inspectorate of Constabulary and Fire & Rescue Services

The OPCC has subsequently provided a response to the report and its recommendations at: –

HMICFRS Reports – Office of the Police and Crime Commissioner for Warwickshire

A question was raised at the GSB Performance Scrutiny – Q1 2024/25 meeting, regarding the causes for the significant increase in OCG disruptions during the last 12-months. In addition, it was considered for further scrutiny as a Focus Subject at the GSB – October 2024 meeting.

The OPCC continues to provide support and oversight to the introduction of ‘Project Stronghold’ in Warwickshire, which is the county’s partnership response to the rollout of the national ‘Clear, Hold, Build’ methodology, designed to make an area a safer place to live and work. This response aims to tackle organised crime groups acting in the neighbourhood, build community resilience, and improve confidence and trust in the police. The OPCC also continues to influence the development of a coordinated countywide partnership strategy for SOC.

8.   Reduce Neighbourhood Crimes

The Govt. measures are: –

1. Burglary.
2. Theft from, and of, vehicle (Crime Survey England & Wales – CSEW).
3. Theft from Person.

The force’s measures are: –

•  a) & b) & c) Home Office Crime Recording categories

8.1.  Force data

a)   Burglary (Home) – Seasonal

• The Home Office baseline is the data for 2019 (n=2,694).
• In 2023/24, volumes (n=1,107) decreased by -2% on the previous year.
• In Q2 2024/25, volumes (n=346) increased by +29% when compared to the previous Q1 (n=267)
• Levels were above the 3-year average and forecast.
• Of note is that in September 2024, 100% of reports were attended by police.
• Of note is that the action taken outcome rate for Q2 2024/25 demonstrates an improvement

b)   Vehicle Crime

• The Home Office baseline is the data for 2019 (n=4,614).
• In 2023/24, volumes (n=4,090) decreased by -13% on the previous
• In Q2 2024/25, volumes (n=987) decreased by -12% when compared to the previous Q1 (n=1,117).
• Levels were broadly consistent with the 3-year average and forecast.

c)    Theft from Person

• The Home Office baseline is the data for 2019 (n=394).
• In 2023/24, volumes (n=258) were consistent with the previous year.
• In Q2 2024/25, volumes (n=63) increased by +43% when compared to the previous Q1 (n=44). Volumes remain comparatively small in the context of TRC.
• Despite this increase, levels remained consistent with the 3-year average and below the forecast.
• The action taken outcome rates remain mercurial given the low volume of offences recorded.

8.2.  OPCC Commentary

In 2016 at the start of the PCC’s first term of office as Police and Crime Commissioner, Warwickshire Police had some 800 police officers in post. A key pledge of the Police and Crime Plan 2021-2025 was to continue have more police officers as part of the wider plans to deliver visible and effective policing. Thanks to a combination of increases in the local Council Tax Police Precept and funding from the Government’s Police Uplift Programme, as of September 2024 the Full Time Establishment stood at 1,144 officers. This figure is due to incrementally decrease to the reach establishment figure in Q4 2024/25.

In December 2023, it was announced that the OPCC had been awarded £1m by the Home Office from the ‘Hotspot Response Fund 2024/25’. The aim of this funding is to ensure there is an enhanced uniformed presence in ASB and serious violence ‘hotspot’ areas across the county. On 1 May 2024, Warwickshire Police commenced enhanced patrolling of the eighteen areas identified. Since this time reductions in the volume of the key performance indicators has been observed.

A question was raised at the GSB Performance Scrutiny – Q1 2024/25 meeting, regarding the specific measures the force are taking to reduce the volume of Vehicle Crime and improve the action taken outcome rates for this offence type.

9.   Victim Satisfaction

The Govt. measures are: –

1. Victim satisfaction with police by victims of domestic abuse.
2. Victim satisfaction with police (CSEW) – Not available.

The force’s proxy measures are: –

1. Force’s own domestic abuse victim satisfaction survey (not comparable with other forces).
2. Victim satisfaction surveys.

9.1.  Force data

Of note is that Warwickshire Police has now set ‘target rates’ for Victim Satisfaction. In September 2024, the ‘whole experience satisfaction’ trend delivered the following levels of performance: –

Figure 2: Victim satisfaction rates.

9.2.  OPCC Commentary

There are some rolling six-month improvements (Domestic Abuse and Burglary).  However, all other satisfaction rates are below the targets set. A question was raised for the GSB Performance Scrutiny – Q4 2023/24 meeting regarding the action Warwickshire Police was taking regarding to improve these rates.

A question was also raised at the GSB Performance Scrutiny – Q1 2024/25 meeting, regarding Warwickshire Police’s capacity, capability and resilience to effectively manage the high volumes of victims contact and victim support.

Victim Satisfaction will continue to remain under scrutiny by the OPCC given its significance to the objectives of the Police and Crime Plan 2021-2025.

The PCC commissions the following services for victims-survivors in Warwickshire: –

• General victim support: Victim Support
• Sexual violence and abuse: Safeline
• Child exploitation: Barnardo’s
• Restorative Justice: Victim Support
• Modern Slavery and Human Trafficking: West Midlands Anti-Slavery Network

10. Tackle Cyber Crime

The Govt. measures are: –

1. Confidence in law enforcement response.
2. Percentage of businesses experiencing cyber-crime. Data taken from non-police sources.

The force’s proxy measures are: –

1. Action Fraud cyber-dependent victim referrals where advice given.

10.1. Force data

Cyber-crime data is not included in the force’s Performance Reports for Q2 2024/25. Warwickshire Police’s position is that the force currently reports cyber-crime measures through the Proactive Preventative Steering Group (P&PSG). Cyber Crime reporting is transitioning to Agency and Partner Management Information System (APMIS), the national system for recording cyber-crime disruptions.

Regional and organised crime units and the National Crime Agency record information about operational activity and outcomes in APMIS. They also record quantitative outcomes such as criminal justice and seizures. All agencies record disruptions, which are common measure of the impact of law enforcement actions on disrupting the operation of organised crime groups, vulnerabilities or individuals involved in serious crime. The force recording the crime may not be the only force associated in the action.

10.2. OPCC commentary

In April 2024, a report was prepared for the Police and Crime Panel Performance Working Group on the national, regional, and local response and capabilities in respect of cybercrime. The Deputy PCC is a board member on the Regional Cyber Resilience Forum and is engaged to ensure that Warwickshire is being supported by this regional resource to prevent cyber-attack